September 29, 2026
Monday, September 28 wiped out most of Friday's bond market gains, and mortgage pricing is starting Tuesday, September 29 on the back foot. Oil prices and Strait of Hormuz headlines did the work, since the economic calendar was empty. The 10-year Treasury yield moved higher again, and mortgage rates remain elevated. Lock guidance is firm across every closing window.
The selloff in mortgage-backed securities was steep enough to erase most of the improvement from Friday, September 25. A small price uptick since then does not put that ground back. With no economic release to trade, the market followed oil and fresh Middle East tension instead. Moves like that can reprice a loan between a morning quote and an afternoon one. Tuesday still sits in that headline-driven tape, with heavier data still ahead.
Affordability is the housing story this week, and it runs through borrowing costs. Mortgage rates remain elevated after Monday's reversal, so the same purchase price can ask for a harder monthly payment than it did after Friday's rally. Buyers who were close on a payment should rerun the numbers before they write another offer. Sellers should expect more payment questions and slower decisions when financing costs jump in a single session. A well-priced home can still draw interest, and the buyer who has to stretch further is more likely to hesitate.
Lock guidance is the same no matter when the loan is set to close. Closings inside seven days, 15 days, 30 days, and further out than 30 days are all in lock territory while yields stay elevated. Wednesday, September 30 brings Core PCE. Thursday, October 1 brings the ISM manufacturing report, and Friday, October 2 brings the jobs report. Floating through those releases, with Fed hike speculation tied to Kevin Warsh also circulating, asks a borrower to bet on headlines that already hurt pricing once this week.
This week asks borrowers to choose a lock over a hope that oil headlines and Friday's jobs report will cooperate. The bias stays with locking while yields remain elevated and the data calendar is full. Purchase and refinance clients who want a payment they can plan around should have that conversation before Wednesday's inflation report.